Reference
Confidence model
Why we show correlation, never causation, and how confidence is labeled.
Correlation, never causation
SEOMadman never claims a change *caused* a result. It shows that a change and a movement happened together, and labels how confident that association is.
How confidence is set
- Measured - a direct read from your data.
- Modeled - an estimate; labeled as such.
- Partial - not enough history to compare fully.
Why
Every other SEO tool wants to tell you a change caused a lift. It reads better and sells better. It is also, almost always, a lie. We would rather be honest and useful.