Do backlinks still correlate with rankings in 2026?

Two firms with two different large samples both find the same shape of relationship: pages that rank higher tend to have more referring domains pointing at them. Where they disagree is on how much that relationship is worth leaning on, and both say so themselves.

The two studies, side by side#

Backlinko’s ranking-factor study, last updated in April 2025, pulled backlink data from Ahrefs across 11.8 million Google results and found position 1 pages average 3x more referring domains and 3.8x more total backlinks than positions 2 through 10. That is a large, memorable gap, and it is the number most often cited to argue backlinks still decide rankings.

Ahrefs ran its own study in January 2025, across the top 1 million US keywords by search volume, and reported the actual Spearman correlation: 0.255 for referring domains, 0.250 for followed referring domains only. Both are weak by the normal reading of a correlation coefficient, where values below roughly 0.3 indicate a real but modest association, not values that would let anyone predict rank from link count alone. Ahrefs published this specific number knowing it undercuts the stronger-sounding multiple-based framing, and both posts add the standard warning: correlation is not causation, and neither study’s design can rule out reverse causation.

What Google itself has said about links#

Google does not publish ranking-factor weights, so the closest thing to an official read comes from what its own staff say on the record. At Pubcon Pro in 2023, Google’s Gary Illyes told attendees links are not among the top three ranking factors and have not been “for some time,” adding that a page with zero external or internal links has ranked number one on the strength of content alone. That statement does not say links are worthless. It does say the industry’s mental model, where link count is close to determinative, is outdated by Google’s own account.

The 13% claim that should not be treated as fact#

A frequently repeated figure holds that backlinks represent exactly 13% of Google’s algorithm weight, down from 15% in 2024. That number comes from First Page Sage’s own recurring internal estimate, presented without a disclosed methodology, survey instrument, or error margin. Google has never confirmed that any ranking factor carries a fixed percentage weight, and multiple current and former Google staff have said directly that no single factor gets a stable, query-independent share of the algorithm. Treat the 13% figure as one firm’s proprietary estimation exercise, not a measured fact, and do not cite it as if Google had disclosed it.

Why we care#

The honest read is a modest, real, positive association: more referring domains track with higher rank, at a strength that leaves most of the variance in Google’s output unexplained. That is enough to justify earning links as part of a page’s overall authority, and not enough to justify treating link count as a lever that moves rank on its own. Budget link-building as one input among many, not the one your ranking strategy hinges on, and be skeptical of any number, including a precise algorithm-weight percentage, that a source presents as more certain than Google itself has ever been willing to state.