---
title: "Do backlinks still correlate with rankings in 2026?"
url: https://seomadman.com/research/backlinks-ranking-correlation-2026
section: research
published: 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z
modified: 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z
author: Adam Hafez
topics: ["Technical SEO"]
---

# Do backlinks still correlate with rankings in 2026?

## The short answer

Backlinko's 11.8-million-result study found position 1 pages average 3x more referring domains than positions 2-10. Ahrefs' own 1-million-keyword study puts that correlation at just 0.255, weak by convention. Google's Gary Illyes has said links are not a top-three ranking factor. These studies cannot separate cause from a shared confound: established pages accumulate both links and rank.

## Key takeaways

- Backlinko's 11.8-million-result study, updated April 2025, found position 1 pages average 3x more referring domains and 3.8x more backlinks than positions 2-10.
- Ahrefs' own January 2025 study of 1 million US keywords found a Spearman correlation of only 0.255 between referring domains and ranking, a weak coefficient by normal convention.
- Both firms explicitly warn that their own data cannot show causation, only association.
- Google's Gary Illyes told Pubcon Pro in 2023 that links are not among the top three ranking factors and have not been for some time.
- A third firm's claim that backlinks are worth exactly 13% of algorithm weight has no disclosed methodology behind it and should not be read as a measured fact.

Two firms with two different large samples both find the same shape of relationship: pages that
rank higher tend to have more referring domains pointing at them. Where they disagree is on how
much that relationship is worth leaning on, and both say so themselves.

## The two studies, side by side

Backlinko's ranking-factor study, last updated in April 2025, pulled backlink data from Ahrefs
across 11.8 million Google results and found position 1 pages average 3x more referring domains
and 3.8x more total backlinks than positions 2 through 10. That is a large, memorable gap, and it
is the number most often cited to argue backlinks still decide rankings.

Ahrefs ran its own study in January 2025, across the top 1 million US keywords by search volume,
and reported the actual Spearman correlation: 0.255 for referring domains, 0.250 for followed
referring domains only. Both are weak by the normal reading of a correlation coefficient, where
values below roughly 0.3 indicate a real but modest association, not values that would let anyone
predict rank from link count alone. Ahrefs published this specific number knowing it undercuts the
stronger-sounding multiple-based framing, and both posts add the standard warning: correlation is
not causation, and neither study's design can rule out reverse causation.

## What Google itself has said about links

Google does not publish ranking-factor weights, so the closest thing to an official read comes
from what its own staff say on the record. At Pubcon Pro in 2023, Google's Gary Illyes told
attendees links are not among the top three ranking factors and have not been "for some time,"
adding that a page with zero external or internal links has ranked number one on the strength of
content alone. That statement does not say links are worthless. It does say the industry's mental
model, where link count is close to determinative, is outdated by Google's own account.

## The 13% claim that should not be treated as fact

A frequently repeated figure holds that backlinks represent exactly 13% of Google's algorithm
weight, down from 15% in 2024. That number comes from First Page Sage's own recurring internal
estimate, presented without a disclosed methodology, survey instrument, or error margin. Google has
never confirmed that any ranking factor carries a fixed percentage weight, and multiple current and
former Google staff have said directly that no single factor gets a stable, query-independent share
of the algorithm. Treat the 13% figure as one firm's proprietary estimation exercise, not a measured
fact, and do not cite it as if Google had disclosed it.

## Why we care

The honest read is a modest, real, positive association: more referring domains track with higher
rank, at a strength that leaves most of the variance in Google's output unexplained. That is enough
to justify earning links as part of a page's overall authority, and not enough to justify treating
link count as a lever that moves rank on its own. Budget link-building as one input among many, not
the one your ranking strategy hinges on, and be skeptical of any number, including a precise
algorithm-weight percentage, that a source presents as more certain than Google itself has ever been
willing to state.

## Sources

1. [We Analyzed 11.8 Million Google Search Results. Here's What We Learned About SEO](https://backlinko.com/search-engine-ranking) - Backlinko (primary)
2. [Google Says "Links Matter Less" - We Looked at 1,000,000 SERPs to See if It's True](https://ahrefs.com/blog/links-matter-less-but-still-matter/) - Ahrefs (primary)
3. [Links are not a top 3 Google Search ranking factor, says Gary Illyes](https://searchengineland.com/links-google-search-ranking-factor-gary-illyes-432422) - Search Engine Land
4. [The Google Algorithm Ranking Factors](https://firstpagesage.com/seo-blog/the-google-algorithm-ranking-factors/) - First Page Sage